β SΓΌper Lig 2018 Β· Fri, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rizespor win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.05 |
| Erzurumspor FK win | 19% | 5.06 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Γaykur Didi Stadyumu |