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Gimnastic 1–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jun 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gimnastic win40%2.43
Draw30%3.20
Lugo win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
38'🟨Juan Muñiz · Lugo
46'🟨Mohammed Djetei · Gimnastic
55'🟨Orest Lebedenko · Lugo
63'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
64'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
65'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
83'🟨Bernard Sun · Gimnastic
90'🟨Antonio Campillo · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots8
6On target2
5Corners4
11Fouls13
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.43
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days251.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
251.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.792.70
elo1344.211415.40
elo momentum (last 5)12.3633.13
eye test v10.78-0.15
eye trend v10.620.05
first sub minute (last 10)47.8057.40
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.57
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.640.81
league points35.0046.00
league rank20.0018.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6071.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0046.20
rest days7.984.90
scorer concentration0.280.22
season ppg0.851.12
skill v1-0.54-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.40
state index-0.41-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.95-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.360.21
threat rate (last 5)0.330.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20