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Granada 2–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win44%2.19
Draw30%3.19
Alcorcon win25%3.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Bernardo · Granada
15'⚽Nicolás Aguirre · Granada
32'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Alcorcon
57'⚽Borja Galan Gonzalez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots15
4On target5
1Corners4
13Fouls15
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
coach days372.00372.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
corner diff avg (last 5)
-0.60
3.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.607.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.853.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.420.44
elo1559.081404.06
elo momentum (last 5)17.66-31.16
eye test v1-0.75-1.15
eye trend v1-0.25-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.8041.40
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v10.710.66
league points76.0053.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8053.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.41
season ppg1.771.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.007.60
skill v1-0.99-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.00
squad age26.7527.23
state index0.22-0.83
sterile dominance v10.020.86
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.140.12
threat rate (last 5)0.180.14
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40