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Oviedo 4–3 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Tue, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win45%2.16
Rayo Majadahonda win31%3.15
Draw24%3.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
26'⚽Francisco Varela · Rayo Majadahonda
42'⚽Diegui · Oviedo
54'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
55'🟨Hector Verdes · Rayo Majadahonda
60'🟨David Morillas · Rayo Majadahonda
62'🟨Verza · Rayo Majadahonda
68'⚽Héctor Hernández · Rayo Majadahonda
71'⚽Daniel Romera · Rayo Majadahonda
74'🟨Jimmy Suárez · Oviedo
80'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
86'⚽Joselu · Oviedo
87'🟨Sancho Agudo Basilio · Rayo Majadahonda
89'🟨Sergio Tejera · Oviedo
90'🟨Joselu · Oviedo
90'⚽Joselu · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots23
8On target10
7Corners7
22Fouls11
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
box share (last 5)0.610.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days703.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Tartiere
—
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.39
elo1475.371400.09
elo momentum (last 5)-7.96-27.05
eye test v1-0.820.31
eye trend v1-0.030.10
first sub minute (last 10)62.6054.10
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.18
keeper form v10.660.58
league points60.0042.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6057.40
rest days9.1310.21
scorer concentration0.170.31
season ppg1.501.05
skill v1-1.270.97
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-0.26-1.03
sterile dominance v1-0.330.57
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80