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Gimnastic 3–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win42%2.33
Draw30%3.20
Gimnastic win28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Xavi Torres · Elche CF
49'⚽ (pen)Carlos Castro · Elche CF
53'🟨— · Elche CF
59'🟨— · Elche CF
59'🟥— · Elche CF
69'⚽Josan · Elche CF
79'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
83'⚽ (og)Neyder Lozano · Gimnastic
84'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic
87'🟨Pol Valentín · Gimnastic
90'🟨Pol Valentín · Gimnastic
90'🟥Pol Valentín · Gimnastic
90'🟨Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
90'🟨Borja Martinez · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots9
8On target4
11Corners2
16Fouls5
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
box share (last 5)0.490.78
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days237.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
479.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.412.96
elo1328.681452.43
elo momentum (last 5)-5.485.67
eye test v1-0.480.27
eye trend v10.210.18
first sub minute (last 10)52.2061.30
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.07
keeper form v10.620.68
league points31.0053.00
league rank21.0011.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8052.00
rest days6.837.81
scorer concentration0.270.24
season ppg0.791.36
skill v1-0.630.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
state index-0.72-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.37-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00