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Cordoba 4–3 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win44%2.19
Gimnastic win28%3.43
Draw28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
20'⚽Javier Lara · Cordoba
22'⚽Andrés Martín · Cordoba
27'⚽Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
32'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
34'🟨Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
61'⚽Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
63'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
66'🟨Àlex Carbonell · Cordoba
66'🟨Imanol García · Gimnastic
68'🟨Luis Muñoz · Cordoba
88'⚽Pol Prats · Gimnastic
90'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
14Shots13
10On target6
5Corners1
17Fouls19
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.49
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days199.00230.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.964.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.14
dominance (last 5)0.460.56
elo1351.181356.50
elo momentum (last 5)-29.505.63
eye test v1-0.93-0.85
eye trend v10.37-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.540.64
league points31.0032.00
league rank22.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4069.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4051.40
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.280.26
season ppg0.780.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.603.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.60
skill v10.01-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
squad age26.1226.61
state index-1.03-0.56
sterile dominance v10.53-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.180.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00