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Gimnastic 2–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win53%1.82
Draw29%3.28
Gimnastic win17%5.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
14'🟨Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
18'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
25'🟨Francisco Javier Campos · Mallorca
42'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
47'🟨Fabián Noguera · Gimnastic
76'🟨Lago Júnior · Mallorca
86'🟨Isaac Becerra · Gimnastic
89'🟨Victor Martinez · Gimnastic
90'⚽Abdón Prats · Mallorca
90'⚽José Kanté · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
4On target3
3Corners5
19Fouls12
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.34
box share (last 5)0.520.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days222.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
770.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.263.60
elo1323.521517.29
elo momentum (last 5)-2.4233.74
eye test v1-0.770.22
eye trend v1-0.350.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.7058.60
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.640.73
league points28.0064.00
league rank21.004.00
matches since blank0.0012.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6079.20
possession avg (last 5)49.0050.80
rest days6.926.00
scorer concentration0.290.20
season ppg0.761.73
skill v1-1.140.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
state index-0.930.45
sterile dominance v1-0.81-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60