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Granada 2–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win62%1.56
Draw25%3.82
Gimnastic win13%7.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Víctor Díaz · Granada
42'🟨Josema · Gimnastic
44'🟨Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic
45'⚽Rodri · Granada
51'🟨Germán Sánchez · Granada
83'🟨José Kanté · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots7
5On target0
4Corners1
17Fouls20
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.520.58
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
coach days331.00209.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.61
elo1535.321358.17
elo momentum (last 5)-11.086.20
eye test v1-0.39-0.03
eye trend v10.30-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.3058.30
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.05
keeper form v10.700.62
league points64.0029.00
league rank3.0021.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2070.00
possession avg (last 5)53.8046.00
rest days8.007.92
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.730.78
shot diff avg (last 5)2.804.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2014.80
skill v1-0.02-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age26.7226.80
state index0.09-0.66
sterile dominance v10.18-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20