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Mallorca 2–0 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win60%1.60
Draw24%4.03
Rayo Majadahonda win16%6.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Ariday · Mallorca
21'🟨Ernesto Galan · Rayo Majadahonda
24'🟨Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
25'⚽ (pen)Lago Júnior · Mallorca
45'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
53'🟨David Andújar · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟥Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots17
5On target4
3Corners10
10Fouls12
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.43
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days749.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
—
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.491.81
elo1487.381437.55
elo momentum (last 5)15.0913.70
eye test v10.300.58
eye trend v10.080.31
first sub minute (last 10)55.0044.90
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.35
keeper form v10.710.71
league points55.0040.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank9.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2050.80
rest days6.176.98
scorer concentration0.230.34
season ppg1.621.18
skill v1-0.100.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.60
state index0.30-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.37-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60