⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Alcorcon 1–4 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw36%2.72
Alcorcon win34%2.86
Málaga CF win30%3.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
28'⚽Adrián González · Málaga CF
35'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
43'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
45'⚽ (pen)Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
53'⚽Renato Santos · Málaga CF
59'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
69'🟨Richard Boateng · Alcorcon
71'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
80'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots13
2On target7
3Corners5
16Fouls10
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
box share (last 5)0.710.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days322.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
18.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.542.45
elo1435.191455.86
elo momentum (last 5)-8.81-12.07
eye test v1-0.07-0.23
eye trend v10.460.38
first sub minute (last 10)52.5052.00
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.48
keeper form v10.720.74
league points47.0055.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0052.00
rest days5.026.21
scorer concentration0.410.24
season ppg1.381.62
skill v1-0.080.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
state index-0.43-0.42
sterile dominance v10.09-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60