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Rayo Majadahonda 1–3 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Majadahonda win44%2.22
Draw30%3.28
Tenerife win27%3.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
14'⚽Nano Mesa · Tenerife
33'🟨Borja Lasso · Tenerife
42'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
50'🟨Benito Ramírez · Rayo Majadahonda
51'⚽Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
54'🟨Isma López · Tenerife
81'🟨David Morillas · Rayo Majadahonda
87'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
90'🟨Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨Luis Milla · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots14
7On target6
5Corners1
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.34
box share (last 5)0.590.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cerro del Espino
224.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.08
elo1455.901437.11
elo momentum (last 5)46.586.72
eye test v10.470.32
eye trend v10.430.43
first sub minute (last 10)47.4060.10
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.05
keeper form v10.700.70
league points40.0037.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0049.00
rest days7.197.98
scorer concentration0.350.16
season ppg1.211.12
skill v10.14-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.00
state index0.39-0.28
sterile dominance v10.04-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.31
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20