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Gimnastic 2–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gimnastic win38%2.52
Draw31%3.11
Numancia win30%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
22'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
27'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
34'🟨Miguel Palanca · Gimnastic
61'🟨Fali · Gimnastic
69'🟨Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
90'🟨Pichu Atienza · Numancia
90'⚽José Kanté · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots7
5On target2
6Corners0
21Fouls11
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
box share (last 5)0.550.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days188.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
310.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.36
elo1325.941438.91
elo momentum (last 5)-15.54-17.15
eye test v10.07-0.40
eye trend v10.39-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)54.7052.90
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.710.64
league points24.0039.00
league rank21.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0079.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2060.40
rest days5.887.96
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg0.751.22
skill v1-0.630.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index-1.00-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.651.17
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.350.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00