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Alcorcon 0–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win40%2.40
Draw32%3.07
Albacete win28%3.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨— · Albacete
19'🟨Jaime Gavilán Martínez · Alcorcon
23'🟨Borja Galan Gonzalez · Alcorcon
28'🟨Richard Boateng · Alcorcon
29'🟨Sulley Muntari · Albacete
37'🟨Néstor Susaeta · Albacete
41'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
43'🟨Aleix Febas · Albacete
43'⚽Aleix Febas · Albacete
55'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Albacete
73'🟨Santiago Gentiletti · Albacete
77'🟨— · Albacete
77'🟥— · Albacete
88'🟨José Antonio Caro · Albacete
89'🟨Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots6
4On target3
6Corners1
19Fouls21
5Yellow cards8
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.640.52
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
coach days310.00310.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.06
dominance (last 5)0.500.45
elo1433.441528.17
elo momentum (last 5)-26.13-3.60
eye test v1-0.34-0.49
eye trend v10.350.54
first sub minute (last 10)54.7068.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.680.82
league points45.0058.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4055.80
rest days7.007.96
scorer concentration0.360.28
season ppg1.321.76
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.00
skill v10.070.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
squad age28.2328.50
state index-0.630.05
sterile dominance v10.210.72
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40