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Zaragoza 3–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win55%1.76
Draw26%3.65
Gimnastic win19%5.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
20'⚽Pep Biel · Zaragoza
25'🟨Miguel Linares · Zaragoza
41'⚽Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
45'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
50'🟨Alberto Soro · Zaragoza
52'🟨Imanol García · Gimnastic
61'🟨Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
73'🟨James Igbekeme · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
18Shots16
7On target6
6Corners2
13Fouls16
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.34
box share (last 5)0.520.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days121.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
182.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.861.93
elo1438.781335.78
elo momentum (last 5)-29.44-12.30
eye test v1-0.71-0.22
eye trend v1-0.500.16
first sub minute (last 10)51.7053.20
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.71
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.790.76
league points34.0024.00
league rank17.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)56.6046.40
rest days6.968.17
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.100.77
skill v10.86-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index-0.64-1.03
sterile dominance v10.86-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20