⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Almeria 2–2 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win53%1.81
Draw29%3.35
Rayo Majadahonda win18%5.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Luis Rioja · Almeria
37'🟨Lucien Owona · Almeria
52'🟨David Andújar · Rayo Majadahonda
54'⚽Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
57'🟨Fede Varela · Rayo Majadahonda
60'🟨Iván Martos · Almeria
66'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
74'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
76'⚽Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
83'🟨Carlitos · Rayo Majadahonda

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots12
5On target6
3Corners4
15Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days759.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
—
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.52
elo1479.461432.37
elo momentum (last 5)14.3720.35
eye test v1-0.61-0.15
eye trend v1-0.090.21
first sub minute (last 10)65.7050.70
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.35
keeper form v10.830.62
league points45.0036.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)40.6050.00
rest days7.796.17
scorer concentration0.270.26
season ppg1.451.16
skill v1-1.870.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index-0.05-0.15
sterile dominance v1-1.430.24
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00