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Rayo Majadahonda 4–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Majadahonda win35%2.78
Numancia win33%2.96
Draw32%3.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Verza · Rayo Majadahonda
20'⚽Daniel Romera · Rayo Majadahonda
26'🟨David Morillas · Rayo Majadahonda
38'⚽David Andújar · Rayo Majadahonda
40'🟨David Andújar · Rayo Majadahonda
43'🟨Pichu Atienza · Numancia
44'🟨Juan Carlos · Numancia
44'⚽ (pen)Héctor Hernández · Rayo Majadahonda
49'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia
52'⚽Héctor Hernández · Rayo Majadahonda
77'🟨Dani Nieto · Numancia
88'🟨Aristóteles Romero · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨Aristóteles Romero · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟥Aristóteles Romero · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨Markel Etxeberria · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
12Shots8
7On target0
5Corners0
16Fouls16
5Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
box share (last 5)0.500.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cerro del Espino
296.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.01
elo1415.261444.82
elo momentum (last 5)-7.140.35
eye test v1-0.40-0.34
eye trend v1-0.260.29
first sub minute (last 10)46.0054.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.95
keeper form v10.570.68
league points33.0036.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2058.60
rest days6.755.63
scorer concentration0.290.31
season ppg1.101.20
skill v10.470.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index-0.55-0.39
sterile dominance v10.720.79
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20