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Elche CF 3–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win42%2.29
Draw34%2.89
Alcorcon win24%4.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Dani Calvo · Elche CF
11'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
16'🟨Xavi Torres · Elche CF
20'⚽Josan · Elche CF
31'⚽Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
42'⚽ (pen)Xavi Torres · Elche CF
56'🟨Édgar Badía · Elche CF
64'🟨Tekio · Elche CF
65'🟨Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
71'⚽Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
76'🟨Borja Galan Gonzalez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots14
5On target3
3Corners2
16Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.27
box share (last 5)0.660.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days415.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
295.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.712.15
elo1410.801441.88
elo momentum (last 5)22.84-8.32
eye test v1-0.65-0.74
eye trend v1-0.070.39
first sub minute (last 10)53.9052.30
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.92
keeper form v10.710.66
league points36.0043.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)45.6048.80
rest days6.816.81
scorer concentration0.360.33
season ppg1.201.43
skill v1-0.70-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
state index-0.04-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.45-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20