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CA Osasuna 3–0 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win66%1.46
Draw21%4.50
Rayo Majadahonda win13%7.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
23'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
41'⚽Juan Villar · CA Osasuna
51'🟨Daniel Romera · Rayo Majadahonda
64'⚽Unai García · CA Osasuna
71'⚽Brandon · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
6On target2
2Corners2
16Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.50
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
2.00
coach days289.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.501.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.42
elo1604.901453.36
elo momentum (last 5)32.6114.20
eye test v10.810.00
eye trend v10.410.11
first sub minute (last 10)64.0051.10
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.730.63
league points63.0039.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank15.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0079.60
possession avg (last 5)49.6053.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg2.031.26
shot diff avg (last 5)5.60-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.8010.20
skill v1-0.740.53
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.204.20
squad age27.9128.85
state index1.03-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.780.67
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.60