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Alcorcon 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win41%2.38
Draw32%3.01
Tenerife win27%3.59

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Uroš Račić · Tenerife
28'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
30'⚽ (pen)Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
39'🟨Paco Montañés · Tenerife
46'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
52'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
54'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
77'🟨Nano Mesa · Tenerife
77'⚽Nano Mesa · Tenerife
85'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
90'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots14
5On target5
2Corners6
18Fouls9
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.33
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days288.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
196.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.303.21
elo1444.001429.08
elo momentum (last 5)-16.45-22.29
eye test v1-1.19-0.45
eye trend v10.490.36
first sub minute (last 10)50.9059.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.92
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.630.73
league points42.0032.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6051.80
rest days6.356.10
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.451.10
skill v1-0.800.14
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.20
state index-0.43-0.61
sterile dominance v10.010.31
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00