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RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win53%1.81
Draw28%3.49
Las Palmas win19%5.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Pablo Marí · RC Deportivo La Coruña
55'🟨Pedro · RC Deportivo La Coruña
75'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
80'🟨Diego Caballo · RC Deportivo La Coruña
82'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
83'🟥Edu Expósito · RC Deportivo La Coruña
86'⚽Aythami Artiles · Las Palmas
89'🟨Fidel · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots16
2On target6
5Corners5
11Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.580.63
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
2.80
coach days282.009.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.006.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.313.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.51
elo1583.011469.92
elo momentum (last 5)-6.653.17
eye test v10.160.11
eye trend v10.300.16
first sub minute (last 10)64.3062.90
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.710.68
league points55.0041.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)55.2052.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.34
season ppg1.831.37
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.60
skill v10.570.27
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
state index0.21-0.18
sterile dominance v10.290.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20