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Alcorcon 2–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win38%2.54
Draw36%2.70
Las Palmas win26%3.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Alcorcon
45'🟨Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
59'⚽ (pen)Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
60'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
63'🟨Alberto de la Bella · Las Palmas
77'⚽Fran Sandaza · Alcorcon
85'🟨Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots13
5On target4
8Corners10
21Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.39
box share (last 5)0.720.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days267.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
98.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.03
elo1443.061431.58
elo momentum (last 5)-36.9023.26
eye test v1-1.02-0.14
eye trend v10.120.10
first sub minute (last 10)47.2059.70
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.20
keeper form v10.590.59
league points38.0037.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)57.4047.00
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration0.360.32
season ppg1.461.42
skill v10.20-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index-0.88-0.06
sterile dominance v10.99-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.150.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20