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Gimnastic 2–3 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win39%2.50
Draw34%2.88
Gimnastic win27%3.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Darwin Machís · Cadiz
15'🟨Salvador Ferrer · Gimnastic
19'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic
34'⚽ (og)José Kanté · Cadiz
37'🟨José Kanté · Gimnastic
51'⚽Manu Vallejo · Cadiz
53'🟨Róber · Cadiz
57'⚽ (pen)José Kanté · Gimnastic
70'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
80'🟨Fabián Noguera · Gimnastic
90'🟨— · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots13
3On target6
5Corners4
16Fouls12
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
box share (last 5)0.460.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days145.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
1058.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.771.75
elo1348.091530.64
elo momentum (last 5)0.625.42
eye test v1-0.70-0.57
eye trend v10.330.47
first sub minute (last 10)53.3058.60
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.720.82
league points21.0041.00
league rank22.007.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.6068.40
possession avg (last 5)36.8044.40
rest days7.086.90
scorer concentration0.290.20
season ppg0.811.58
skill v1-2.16-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index-0.600.04
sterile dominance v1-1.26-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80