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Alcorcon 1–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win39%2.48
Draw36%2.68
Cadiz win25%3.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
53'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
56'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
81'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
81'🟥Laure · Alcorcon
84'⚽Marcos Mauro · Cadiz
85'🟨Dani Jiménez · Alcorcon
90'🟨Darwin Machís · Cadiz
90'⚽Darwin Machís · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
4Shots13
1On target7
2Corners5
20Fouls12
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.22
box share (last 5)0.660.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days254.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1045.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.08
elo1460.461511.53
elo momentum (last 5)-39.89-24.88
eye test v1-0.31-1.24
eye trend v10.36-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)49.8058.90
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.32
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.640.84
league points38.0035.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0068.60
possession avg (last 5)57.6044.80
rest days7.006.83
scorer concentration0.380.23
season ppg1.581.46
skill v10.53-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.20
state index-0.70-0.56
sterile dominance v10.72-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80