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Mallorca 2–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win39%2.47
Draw34%2.83
Alcorcon win26%3.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Ariday · Mallorca
20'⚽ (pen)Ante Budimir · Mallorca
32'🟨Ante Budimir · Mallorca
42'🟨Nono · Alcorcon
55'🟨Víctor Casadesús · Alcorcon
69'🟨Ante Budimir · Mallorca
69'🟥Ante Budimir · Mallorca
71'🟨Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca
72'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
83'🟨Joan Sastre · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots23
3On target6
0Corners4
20Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.620.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days673.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
247.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.01
elo1451.431473.84
elo momentum (last 5)-2.17-29.92
eye test v1-0.54-0.84
eye trend v1-0.370.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.0051.60
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
keeper form v10.740.70
league points34.0038.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6075.20
possession avg (last 5)51.4054.80
rest days7.656.75
scorer concentration0.350.38
season ppg1.481.65
skill v10.180.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.60
state index-0.14-0.63
sterile dominance v10.570.65
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.14
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60