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Gimnastic 0–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win39%2.51
Draw32%3.07
Gimnastic win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Victor Martinez · Gimnastic
36'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
45'🟨Salvador Ferrer · Gimnastic
46'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
60'🟨Martín Mantovani · Las Palmas
70'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
70'🟥Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
90'🟨Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots11
4On target5
6Corners8
16Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.33
box share (last 5)0.630.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days118.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
71.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.752.94
elo1338.661419.41
elo momentum (last 5)-0.3018.93
eye test v1-0.79-0.01
eye trend v10.420.43
first sub minute (last 10)56.8055.90
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.23
keeper form v10.700.56
league points16.0031.00
league rank22.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2072.40
possession avg (last 5)35.8047.40
rest days7.087.98
scorer concentration0.230.31
season ppg0.731.41
skill v1-1.95-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
state index-0.70-0.23
sterile dominance v1-1.43-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80