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Alcorcon 2–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win60%1.61
Draw27%3.63
Cordoba win14%7.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Luismi Quezada · Cordoba
40'⚽Andrés Martín · Cordoba
50'🟨Javi Galán · Cordoba
54'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
61'⚽Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
62'🟨Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
78'⚽Víctor Casadesús · Alcorcon
82'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots6
4On target2
6Corners1
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.36
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days240.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
87.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.161.73
elo1467.791382.43
elo momentum (last 5)-44.95-1.15
eye test v1-0.94-0.75
eye trend v10.200.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.7055.30
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.730.68
league points35.0018.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4053.00
rest days7.088.00
scorer concentration0.370.28
season ppg1.590.82
skill v1-0.26-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.00
state index-0.93-0.70
sterile dominance v10.090.65
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.190.15
threat rate (last 5)0.220.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40