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Lugo 3–2 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win42%2.32
Draw31%3.14
Rayo Majadahonda win27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
24'⚽Toni Martínez · Lugo
27'🟨Hector Verdes · Rayo Majadahonda
39'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
43'⚽José Carlos Lazo · Lugo
47'⚽Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
65'🟨Enzo Zidane · Rayo Majadahonda
69'⚽Manu Del Moral · Rayo Majadahonda
73'🟨Rafa · Rayo Majadahonda
73'⚽Carlos Pita · Lugo
78'🟨Juan Muñiz · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots15
5On target3
2Corners3
17Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.29
box share (last 5)0.490.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days117.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
—
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.142.85
elo1402.621423.26
elo momentum (last 5)0.91-30.40
eye test v1-1.30-0.24
eye trend v1-0.29-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.5040.80
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.88
keeper form v10.670.59
league points23.0023.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win5.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2079.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6056.00
rest days6.907.00
scorer concentration0.250.27
season ppg1.051.05
skill v1-0.770.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.60
state index-0.57-1.08
sterile dominance v10.200.61
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80