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Extremadura 3–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win35%2.77
Draw34%2.89
Extremadura win31%3.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
20'🟨Enric Gallego · Extremadura
29'🟨Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
32'⚽Kike · Extremadura
44'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
44'🟥Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
47'⚽Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
61'🟨Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
64'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
87'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots14
4On target4
5Corners8
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.410.55
cards avg (last 5)2.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
coach days65.00218.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.412.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.400.49
elo1396.141511.58
elo momentum (last 5)-1.89-26.63
eye test v1-0.87-0.70
eye trend v10.02-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.0055.00
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.620.55
league points17.0035.00
league rank22.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)47.6058.40
rest days14.0013.00
scorer concentration0.600.37
season ppg0.851.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.609.80
skill v1-0.490.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.60
squad age28.3229.00
state index-0.55-0.36
sterile dominance v10.170.99
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20