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CA Osasuna 2–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win49%1.99
Draw31%3.10
Alcorcon win20%4.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
49'🟨Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
53'⚽Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
60'🟨Aly Abeid · Alcorcon
64'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
71'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna
74'🟨Nono · Alcorcon
82'⚽Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna
88'🟨Jonathan Pereira · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots13
5On target3
4Corners3
11Fouls23
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days198.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
198.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.55
elo1488.141512.74
elo momentum (last 5)18.37-2.09
eye test v10.34-0.50
eye trend v10.300.01
first sub minute (last 10)58.9059.90
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.95
keeper form v10.640.56
league points26.0033.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)54.8061.20
rest days7.927.17
scorer concentration0.390.41
season ppg1.531.94
skill v1-0.261.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
state index0.31-0.06
sterile dominance v1-0.281.49
threat rate (last 10)0.260.15
threat rate (last 3)0.270.13
threat rate (last 5)0.280.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40