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Albacete 2–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win36%2.71
Draw34%2.86
Alcorcon win30%3.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Eugeni Valderrama · Albacete
50'🟨Aleix Febas · Albacete
51'⚽ (pen)Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
55'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
58'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Albacete
71'⚽ (pen)Jérémie Bela · Albacete
83'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
90'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots8
4On target3
11Corners3
18Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.35
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days184.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
184.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.32
elo1492.991538.18
elo momentum (last 5)36.7423.83
eye test v10.10-0.49
eye trend v1-0.38-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)48.6064.00
form points (last 5)13.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.84
keeper form v10.850.62
league points27.0033.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6078.60
possession avg (last 5)47.2055.40
rest days7.006.90
scorer concentration0.230.41
season ppg1.802.20
skill v1-0.420.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
state index0.430.55
sterile dominance v10.020.99
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.180.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00