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Rayo Majadahonda 0–0 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win50%1.95
Draw27%3.55
Rayo Majadahonda win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Michele Somma · RC Deportivo La Coruña
66'🟨Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨David Morillas · Rayo Majadahonda
90'🟨Gerard Valentín · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots10
3On target3
11Corners2
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.390.56
cards avg (last 5)3.201.60
coach days—184.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cerro del Espino
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.490.49
elo1475.111590.33
elo momentum (last 5)4.3227.11
eye test v1-0.66-0.17
eye trend v10.430.02
first sub minute (last 10)49.7064.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.30
keeper form v10.690.80
league points22.0033.00
league rank12.002.00
matches since blank3.0010.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0050.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.360.29
season ppg1.382.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.4011.20
skill v1-0.39-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
squad age27.3727.99
state index0.050.67
sterile dominance v1-0.190.00
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20