⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gimnastic 2–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win34%2.84
Gimnastic win33%2.92
Draw33%2.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Imanol García · Gimnastic
20'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
38'⚽Lucien Owona · Almeria
43'⚽Lucien Owona · Almeria
45'🟨Leonardo Suárez · Gimnastic
56'🟨Raúl Albentosa · Gimnastic
63'🟨Andoni López · Almeria
64'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
68'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
87'🟨Juan Carlos · Almeria
89'🟨Juan Carlos · Almeria
89'🟥Juan Carlos · Almeria
90'🟨Fali · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
8Shots12
3On target6
6Corners5
19Fouls14
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days54.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
633.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.793.02
elo1356.661430.64
elo momentum (last 5)-28.64-6.50
eye test v1-0.70-0.62
eye trend v1-0.10-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.50
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.06
keeper form v10.620.76
league points9.0018.00
league rank22.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.005.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)34.8053.80
rest days7.004.79
scorer concentration0.220.18
season ppg0.641.29
skill v1-2.52-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
state index-1.04-0.58
sterile dominance v1-1.780.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80