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Gimnastic 1–3 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win36%2.68
Draw32%3.04
Gimnastic win32%3.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Fali · Gimnastic
13'🟨Raúl Albentosa · Gimnastic
32'⚽ (og)Mohammed Djetei · Zaragoza
45'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
52'🟨Leonardo Suárez · Gimnastic
59'🟨Josua Mejías · Gimnastic
59'🟨Marc Gual · Zaragoza
64'🟨David Rocha · Gimnastic
65'⚽Pep Biel · Zaragoza
67'🟨Jorge Pombo · Zaragoza
83'🟨Cristian Álvarez · Zaragoza
90'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots10
3On target2
3Corners1
15Fouls10
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.23
box share (last 5)0.630.40
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days42.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
164.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.621.42
elo1379.401460.68
elo momentum (last 5)-15.68-50.43
eye test v1-0.42-0.74
eye trend v10.61-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)55.7051.10
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.680.66
league points9.0011.00
league rank22.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.008.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)41.6051.00
rest days10.008.02
scorer concentration0.250.30
season ppg0.750.92
skill v1-1.560.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
state index-0.72-1.14
sterile dominance v1-1.120.28
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.28
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80