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Rayo Majadahonda 2–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Majadahonda win37%2.62
Draw32%3.07
Almeria win31%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
31'🟨Andrei David · Rayo Majadahonda
43'🟨Luso · Rayo Majadahonda
43'⚽Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
45'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
55'🟨Andoni López · Almeria
68'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
84'🟨Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
88'🟨José Romera · Almeria
89'⚽Aitor García · Rayo Majadahonda

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots8
4On target1
4Corners13
14Fouls17
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.32
box share (last 5)0.500.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Wanda Metropolitano
620.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.201.83
elo1445.431442.45
elo momentum (last 5)-3.0110.37
eye test v1-0.900.01
eye trend v1-0.42-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)57.2056.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.06
keeper form v10.440.75
league points13.0017.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6053.20
rest days6.926.92
scorer concentration0.290.20
season ppg1.081.42
skill v1-0.20-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
state index-0.32-0.19
sterile dominance v10.05-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80