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Rayo Majadahonda 1–1 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win39%2.50
Draw32%3.00
Rayo Majadahonda win29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
13'🟨Luso · Rayo Majadahonda
40'🟨Rafa · Rayo Majadahonda
43'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
47'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
55'🟨Unai García · CA Osasuna
60'⚽Juan Villar · CA Osasuna
77'⚽Aitor Ruibal · Rayo Majadahonda
82'🟨Nacho Vidal · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots12
2On target1
2Corners3
14Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.25
box share (last 5)0.510.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Wanda Metropolitano
149.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.162.67
elo1457.541459.64
elo momentum (last 5)-21.4013.94
eye test v1-0.57-0.65
eye trend v1-0.240.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.7054.90
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.15
keeper form v10.750.61
league points12.0012.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)56.2051.00
rest days7.048.13
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.201.20
skill v10.71-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.20
state index-0.43-0.26
sterile dominance v10.66-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20