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Gimnastic 2–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win37%2.66
Draw32%3.02
Gimnastic win31%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic
26'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
63'🟨Sebastian Coris · Gimnastic
64'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Oviedo
73'🟨Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
74'🟨Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
74'🟨Ibrahima Baldé · Oviedo
76'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
81'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
81'🟥Ramon Folch · Oviedo
88'🟨Raúl Albentosa · Gimnastic
90'⚽Raúl Albentosa · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots9
5On target5
5Corners5
19Fouls16
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.27
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days27.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
484.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.753.22
elo1377.441480.91
elo momentum (last 5)-30.73-10.39
eye test v1-0.53-0.77
eye trend v10.25-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)54.5057.20
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.23
keeper form v10.620.59
league points6.0015.00
league rank22.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2072.00
possession avg (last 5)44.0053.80
rest days6.887.88
scorer concentration0.330.27
season ppg0.601.50
skill v1-0.88-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
state index-1.16-0.23
sterile dominance v1-0.950.24
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40