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Reus 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reus win40%2.44
Draw33%2.95
Rayo Majadahonda win27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

48'⚽ (og)Édgar Badía · Rayo Majadahonda
50'⚽Alejandro Catena · Reus
66'🟨Ernesto Galan · Rayo Majadahonda
81'🟨Jesus Olmo · Reus
86'⚽Juan Dominguez · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots12
4On target1
7Corners5
11Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReusRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.650.53
cards avg (last 5)1.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Reus
coach days120.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.40-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)0.993.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.320.43
elo1437.771480.28
elo momentum (last 5)-17.42-1.01
eye test v1-0.96-0.26
eye trend v10.08-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)56.5057.00
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.60—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.750.78
league points10.0015.00
league rank18.009.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2080.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6054.80
rest days7.927.00
scorer concentration0.430.33
season ppg1.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.80-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.6011.20
skill v10.150.66
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.304.44
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.60
squad age26.1028.13
state index-0.96-0.28
sterile dominance v10.830.63
threat rate (last 10)0.140.25
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.150.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.40—