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Gimnastic 1–3 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win48%2.02
Draw29%3.34
Gimnastic win23%4.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Tete Morente · Gimnastic
33'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
56'🟨Carlos Fernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña
68'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
70'🟨Saúl García · RC Deportivo La Coruña
72'🟨Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña
79'🟨Tete Morente · Gimnastic
86'⚽Christian Santos · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots10
2On target5
7Corners1
14Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.64
cards avg (last 5)3.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
2.00
coach days139.00121.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.013.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.360.53
elo1414.481547.58
elo momentum (last 5)-18.2314.45
eye test v1-1.28-0.14
eye trend v10.030.18
first sub minute (last 10)54.1060.20
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.690.80
league points5.0014.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)39.6054.60
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.712.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.4010.60
skill v1-1.360.83
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.00
squad age27.9727.26
state index-0.650.21
sterile dominance v1-0.430.81
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00