⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Málaga CF 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win67%1.44
Draw23%4.21
Rayo Majadahonda win10%9.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Jack Harper · Málaga CF
22'🟨Luis Hernández · Málaga CF
62'🟨Luso · Rayo Majadahonda
68'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF
73'🟨Ernesto Galan · Rayo Majadahonda
76'🟨Rafa · Rayo Majadahonda
85'🟨Dani Pacheco · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots12
3On target3
5Corners4
19Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.550.49
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Rosaleda
coach days121.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.84—
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.10
dominance (last 5)0.560.54
elo1538.181455.92
elo momentum (last 5)24.34-36.94
eye test v10.090.66
eye trend v10.24-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)57.7053.33
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.94—
h2 goals (last 10)0.50—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.710.50
league points15.006.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8081.60
possession avg (last 5)41.0056.40
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg2.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.202.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.6015.20
skill v1-1.220.94
sot against avg (last 5)1.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.40
squad age26.1926.66
state index0.59-0.62
sterile dominance v1-1.080.28
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.330.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.80—