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Alcorcon 2–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win45%2.17
Draw31%3.10
Oviedo win24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
33'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
35'🟨Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon
37'🟨Nono · Alcorcon
51'🟨Diegui · Oviedo
56'🟨Javier Muñoz · Oviedo
57'⚽Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
73'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
79'🟨Nono · Alcorcon
79'🟥Nono · Alcorcon
88'🟨Sergio Tejera · Oviedo
90'🟨Dani Jiménez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots13
5On target2
1Corners8
16Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.46
box share (last 5)0.580.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days121.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
456.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.453.39
elo1480.681486.02
elo momentum (last 5)27.587.27
eye test v1-0.48-0.21
eye trend v1-0.180.01
first sub minute (last 10)63.5064.00
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.17
keeper form v10.810.64
league points11.009.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8048.40
rest days6.676.83
scorer concentration0.400.22
season ppg1.831.50
skill v10.29-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
state index0.39-0.05
sterile dominance v10.58-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40