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Rayo Majadahonda 1–4 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Majadahonda win42%2.32
Draw31%3.10
Extremadura win27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
22'🟨Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
29'⚽Chuli · Extremadura
40'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
57'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
57'🟥Óscar Valentín · Rayo Majadahonda
61'🟨Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
63'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
69'⚽ (pen)Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
79'🟨Vincenzo Rennella · Extremadura
85'🟨Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
90'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots19
3On target8
5Corners7
13Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
box share (last 5)0.500.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cerro del Espino
721.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1478.941444.16
elo momentum (last 5)-21.06-55.84
eye test v10.64-0.62
eye trend v10.190.34
first sub minute (last 10)54.8056.20
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
keeper form v1—0.64
league points6.001.00
league rank15.0022.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4069.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2047.00
rest days5.926.00
season ppg1.200.20
skill v10.77-1.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.40
state index-0.49-1.23
sterile dominance v10.18-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24