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Alcorcon 1–0 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.85
RC Deportivo La Coruña win33%2.90
Alcorcon win33%2.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
20'🟨Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
20'🟨Pedro · RC Deportivo La Coruña
32'🟨Nono · Alcorcon
33'🟨David Simón · RC Deportivo La Coruña
43'⚽Nono · Alcorcon
55'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
64'🟨Didier Moreno · RC Deportivo La Coruña
86'🟨Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon
86'🟨Michael Krohn-Dehli · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Hector Rodas · Alcorcon
90'🟨Michael Krohn-Dehli · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟥Michael Krohn-Dehli · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots7
4On target2
9Corners5
20Fouls17
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.32
box share (last 5)0.520.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days106.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
106.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.00
elo1453.041460.40
elo momentum (last 5)14.4325.52
eye test v1-0.20-0.17
eye trend v1-0.08-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)63.3057.70
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.410.74
keeper form v10.770.83
league points5.008.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)54.6052.20
rest days6.005.97
season ppg1.252.00
skill v10.430.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
state index0.140.06
sterile dominance v10.700.59
threat rate (last 10)0.190.29
threat rate (last 3)0.160.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20