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Zaragoza 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda

← Segunda DivisiΓ³n 2018 Β· Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win55%1.76
Draw28%3.43
Rayo Majadahonda win17%5.72

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
31'🟨Enzo Zidane · Rayo Majadahonda
33'⚽Jorge Pombo · Zaragoza
45'⚽ (pen)Javi Ros · Zaragoza
71'🟨Javi Ros · Zaragoza
74'🟨James Igbekeme · Zaragoza
85'⚽Toni Martínez · Rayo Majadahonda

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots7
4On target3
5Corners3
19Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaRayo Majadahonda
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.52β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.71β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.60β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05β€”
box share (last 5)0.63β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.40β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
coach days79.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.31β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-7.20β€”
corners against avg (last 5)10.60β€”
corners for avg (last 5)3.40β€”
corners volatility (last 10)1.56β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.09β€”
dominance (last 5)0.31β€”
elo1542.271500.00
elo momentum (last 5)14.98β€”
eye test v10.30β€”
eye trend v1-0.14β€”
first sub minute (last 10)58.40β€”
form points (last 5)10.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.20β€”
goals for avg (last 5)2.20β€”
goals volatility (last 10)1.14β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.80β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.50β€”
keeper form v10.78β€”
matches since blank5.00β€”
matches since clean sheet2.00β€”
matches since win2.00β€”
pass acc avg (last 5)79.40β€”
possession avg (last 5)53.00β€”
rest days30.00β€”
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.00β€”
shots for avg (last 5)7.80β€”
skill v10.49β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.20β€”
sot for avg (last 10)5.10β€”
sot for avg (last 3)4.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)4.60β€”
squad age28.06β€”
state index0.300.00
sterile dominance v10.93β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.22β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.13β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.16β€”
venue ppg (last 5)2.40β€”