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Alcorcon 1–2 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Mar 8, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win44%2.19
Draw31%3.10
Mirandes win25%4.03

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon −0.2553%1.84
Mirandes −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Carlos Pomares · Alcorcon
47'⚽Daniel Romera · Alcorcon
52'🟨Mickaël Malsa · Mirandes
57'🟨Richard Boateng · Alcorcon
69'🟨Dani Jiménez · Alcorcon
82'🟨Carlos Pomares · Alcorcon
82'🟥Carlos Pomares · Alcorcon
86'🟨Óscar Arribas Pasero · Alcorcon
88'⚽ (pen)Martín Merquelanz · Mirandes
90'🟨Luis Perea · Alcorcon
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots8
3On target4
3Corners4
15Fouls13
6Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.460.55
cards avg (last 5)3.003.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Santo Domingo
Martín Merquelanz
· Mirandes
coach days646.00251.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.021.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.34
elo1474.881451.03
elo momentum (last 5)12.49-8.14
eye test v1-0.01-0.52
eye trend v1-0.030.01
first sub minute (last 10)58.5056.80
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.630.75
league points44.0041.00
league rank8.0013.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet8.006.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6072.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2050.20
rest days7.007.26
scorer concentration0.210.22
season ppg1.421.28
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-7.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.608.00
skill v1-1.10-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
squad age27.1425.76
state index0.04-0.89
sterile dominance v1-0.830.53
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80