← Segunda División 2019 · Tue, Oct 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 60% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.07 |
| Alcorcon win | 15% | 6.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Alcorcon −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 18 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand