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Denizlispor 2–3 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, Apr 17, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Denizlispor win37%2.60
Erzurumspor FK win32%3.05
Draw31%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Denizlispor +054%1.80
Erzurumspor FK +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Emrah Başsan · Erzurumspor FK
26'🟨Fabiano · Denizlispor
34'🟨Arvydas Novikovas · Erzurumspor FK
37'🟨Hasan Hatipoğlu · Erzurumspor FK
46'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Denizlispor
64'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Denizlispor
79'⚽Elbasan Rashani · Erzurumspor FK
86'⚽Elbasan Rashani · Erzurumspor FK
89'🟨Petrus Boumal · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots12
5On target5
6Corners4
13Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDenizlisporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.550.63
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu
2.00
coach days167.00137.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.21
dominance (last 5)0.320.58
elo1398.331423.50
elo momentum (last 5)-2.12-17.97
eye test v1-0.80-0.05
eye trend v10.16-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)50.7048.40
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.700.61
league points29.0031.00
league rank24.0023.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win7.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8081.40
possession avg (last 5)38.8052.80
rest days4.775.77
scorer concentration0.350.15
season ppg0.780.84
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.204.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.4013.60
skill v1-1.260.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
squad age27.5231.39
state index-0.84-1.04
sterile dominance v1-0.570.30
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20