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Erzurumspor FK 2–4 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Apr 11, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win47%2.06
Draw28%3.53
Erzurumspor FK win25%3.86

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzurumspor FK +0.553%1.85
Besiktas +0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.92
Under50%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Cyle Larin · Besiktas
16'⚽Leo Schwechlen · Erzurumspor FK
26'⚽Oğuzhan Özyakup · Besiktas
39'⚽Emrah Başsan · Erzurumspor FK
57'🟨Dorukhan Toköz · Besiktas
66'⚽Rachid Ghezzal · Besiktas
82'🟨Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Erzurumspor FK
86'⚽Gökhan Töre · Besiktas
90'🟨Welinton · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
12Shots10
4On target6
3Corners2
16Fouls19
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzurumspor FKBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.570.54
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKazım Karabekir Stadyumu
coach days131.00466.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.293.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.550.56
elo1429.301737.16
elo momentum (last 5)-21.30-19.77
eye test v1-0.040.45
eye trend v1-0.070.02
first sub minute (last 10)46.1064.20
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.670.74
league points31.0079.00
league rank23.001.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6085.40
possession avg (last 5)54.2059.20
rest days4.134.00
scorer concentration0.160.23
season ppg0.862.19
shot diff avg (last 5)2.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.4014.20
skill v10.831.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age31.4726.75
state index-0.910.56
sterile dominance v10.510.84
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80