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Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Jan 31, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzurumspor FK win39%2.46
Ankaragücü win31%3.12
Draw30%3.26

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.2554%1.81
Erzurumspor FK −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Johanna Ochieng Omolo · Erzurumspor FK
37'🟨Aatif Chahechouhe · Erzurumspor FK
55'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Ankaragücü
56'🟨Aliou Badji · Ankaragücü
59'🟨Assane Dioussé · Ankaragücü
61'🟨Petrus Boumal · Erzurumspor FK
62'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Erzurumspor FK
64'⚽Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Erzurumspor FK
69'🟨Zvonimir Šarlija · Ankaragücü
70'🟨Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
71'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots6
5On target2
3Corners4
26Fouls17
7Yellow cards6
1Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzurumspor FKAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.570.55
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKazım Karabekir Stadyumu
Arvydas Novikovas · Erzurumspor FK
73'🟨Petrus Boumal · Erzurumspor FK
73'🟥Petrus Boumal · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Hasan Hatipoğlu · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
90'🟥Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
90'🟥Endri Çekiçi · Ankaragücü
coach days61.00152.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.602.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.361.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.400.42
elo1435.901449.26
elo momentum (last 5)21.175.67
eye test v1-0.82-0.17
eye trend v10.090.27
first sub minute (last 10)54.8055.60
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1—0.63
league points20.0021.00
league rank22.0021.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet19.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8071.80
possession avg (last 5)45.2044.80
rest days9.905.77
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg0.870.91
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.2011.40
skill v1-0.31-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
squad age30.9326.65
state index-0.47-0.53
sterile dominance v10.25-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.31
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80