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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–3 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Dec 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win59%1.64
Draw25%3.87
Erzurumspor FK win16%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzurumspor FK −154%1.78
Yeni Malatyaspor −146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Afriyie Acquah · Yeni Malatyaspor
35'🟨Hasan Hatipoğlu · Erzurumspor FK
44'⚽Ricardo Gomes · Erzurumspor FK
45'🟨Gabriel Obertan · Erzurumspor FK
47'🟨Teenage Hadebe · Yeni Malatyaspor
62'🟨Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Erzurumspor FK
62'⚽Afriyie Acquah · Yeni Malatyaspor
67'⚽Mitchell Donald · Erzurumspor FK
71'⚽Gabriel Obertan · Erzurumspor FK
72'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
73'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots10
4On target6
7Corners3
13Fouls24
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.680.56
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
🟨
Emrah Başsan · Erzurumspor FK
83'🟨Petrus Boumal · Erzurumspor FK
87'🟨Mehmet Murat Uçar · Erzurumspor FK
2.40
coach days148.0026.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.207.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.943.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1532.461391.07
elo momentum (last 5)65.62-45.60
eye test v10.46-0.01
eye trend v10.400.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.1050.10
form points (last 5)11.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.750.65
league points24.009.00
league rank9.0024.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.0011.00
matches since win1.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)40.4049.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.180.20
season ppg1.600.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.60
skill v1-1.010.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age28.7829.75
state index0.74-1.73
sterile dominance v1-1.230.09
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.380.22
threat rate (last 5)0.320.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00