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Hatayspor 3–0 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2020 · Wed, Dec 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Sarper Barıs Saka, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win50%1.93
Draw27%3.57
Erzurumspor FK win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −0.551%1.93
Erzurumspor FK −0.549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Adama Traoré · Hatayspor
40'⚽Mame Biram Diouf · Hatayspor
43'🟨Babajide David Akintola · Hatayspor
47'⚽ (og)Osman Çelik · Hatayspor
53'🟨Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Erzurumspor FK
58'⚽Babajide David Akintola · Hatayspor
76'🟨Monir El Kajoui · Hatayspor
76'🟨Ömer Şişmanoğlu · Erzurumspor FK
81'🟨Kaan Kanak · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots13
8On target4
2Corners6
17Fouls16
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.33
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.670.63
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntakya Atatürk Stadı
coach days130.008.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.133.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.15
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1536.741428.48
elo momentum (last 5)-12.90-23.87
eye test v1-0.420.28
eye trend v10.43-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)61.5055.20
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.94
h2 goals (last 10)—0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.710.67
league points18.009.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win3.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4082.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2048.00
rest days4.024.15
scorer concentration0.290.22
season ppg1.640.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.80
skill v10.520.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.254.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
squad age28.4829.08
state index-0.27-0.95
sterile dominance v10.33-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20